Silly Prediction Time
The following was originally seen on the Lyria Comic Exchange Forum:
I predict the next comic boom (defined by a sharp increase in across the board prices) to take place around 2012.
I’m burying this in a thread rather than starting a new one, because I know that I’ll be taking all of this back sooner than later.
How I arrived at this:
1) We’re settling down from our most recent boom that took place from 2001-2005. So, I automatically figured there would be a 2-4 year relaxing or even bust/bear period.
2) There were quite a few investors who used Home Equity loans to do many things - buying comics was one of them. Now that the housing market is cooling we may see fewer borrowed dollars going into the hobby.
3) The Fed is losing its shyness for raising interst rates. Some see this as an early reaction to increasing inflation. If rates and inflation continue to rise it may be 5-10 years before middle and upper-class incomes reflect this. Once that happens, higher price tags on collectibles will not seem as shocking, Dealers will feel more comfortable increasing those price points and Copper Age books will be reaching an age of maturity that very well may be the catalyst for the upswing.
Mind you I’m not an economist (I did very poorly in my Econ classes in school) and I’m pretty much going on a gut feeling and a couple days worth of business news. But who knows, it may do us well to reflect on the implications of the possibility. Foremost would be the justification for increased investment in the near-term (2006-2011) for those interested in recouping in that timeframe. Personally, my strategy is to sell about 20-25 years from now, so this would tell me to lay of buying during that bull period.
The last thing that I have to say is - be on the look out for two conditions that confound my theory of even speed up the process. Those would be the creation of a new technology or a new market sector. Both happened in the guise of 3rd party grading 5 years ago and ushering in the most recent price spike. A new technology could be improved restoration techniques or preservation supplies. A new sector could appear in the form of hotly collected writers and artists or the entry of collectors who were previously uninterested in our brand of collectibles (manga readers or people who bought TPBs from Barnes and Noble).
That’s all that I’ve got for now - please let me know where I’ve miscalculated.
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